Kantar Emor’s pre-election polls were accurate


The results of the pre-election polls conducted by Kantar Emor were very similar to the actual voting results. The differences were within statistical error.

Kantar Emor’s research expert Aivar Voog commented that after the polls it was certain that the Reform Party will win the elections, but the ranking of the following parties was interesting to observe. “The poll reflects the situation at a specific moment in terms of party preferences. Party preferences can change until the last moment, parties are all working for this. A lot depends on how political parties can activate their supporters to vote,” said Voog. „This time the Reform Party succeeded in activating its supporters, also having used the expanded advertising opportunities (e.g. advertising on election day) effectively. They were able to convince voters with a more random electoral preference to vote for the Reform Party,“ he added.

Since January Kantar Emor conducted election survey every week (in cooperation with Estonian Public Broadcasting). The latest election survey was conducted from February 28 to March 2. In February there were 4 survey waves and altogether 6278 citizens in the age of 18-84 years answered. One third of the respondents answered by phone and two thirds online. When presenting the results, Kantar Emor removed the “can’t say” respondents, which makes the rating percentages of political parties comparable to the results of the parliament elections. For example in last week’s survey, a fifth of the respondents indicated that they could not say a preference.

Aivar Voog

Aivar Voog

Kantar Emori ärisuuna juht

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